Posted: 28 Aug 2008 12:46 PM CDT
A bounce is generally known as an uptick in polling after events of consequence happing in a political campaign and traditionally, as shown by Center For Policy Org., that bounce ranges from minus one to plus 28, with very few election seasons showing a drop in polling numbers or non-movement, depending on the years tracked from 1960 to 2004.
There has been much concern expressed from liberal political blogs, pundits and on forums about the lack of Convention "bounce" for Obama in the polling for the last few days. Today Gallup allays some of that concern by showing the long awaited "bounce"
Gallup just released their daily tracking report which should allay the concerns that have been expressed by liberal bloggers, websites, media and pundits across the web.
The expected bounce that has appeared is a six-point lead showing Obama over McCain with 48 percent to 42 percent.
The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.
Gallup points out this bounce is not yet reflective of Bill Clinton, nor Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden's speeches from last night.
The highest bounce ever seen was for the Democrats after their convention, was 28 points in 1992 for Bill Clinton.
The only other presidential daily tracking poll published today is from Rasmussen, which as of yet, is not showing the same bounce that Gallup is showing, listing it as a modest one percentage point uptick, with the race between John McCain and Barack Obama listed as 45 percent for Obama and 44 percent for McCain and when "leaners", those that lean toward the Democrats or Republicans, are added, the race ties up at 47 percent to 47 percent.
Both polls are the result of a three-day rolling average basis and both carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
It is expected that John McCain will announce his vice presidential pick tomorrow, hoping to limit and counter the convention bounce that Obama is receiving now, by taking over the news coverage for the weekend, leading into the Republican Convention which starts next week.
Posted: 28 Aug 2008 12:05 PM CDT
Speculation of late has largely centered around three men, Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman.
Initial reports yesterday claimed that John McCain had chosen his vice presidential running mate, which he is expected to announce Friday at 11 a.m. ET in Dayton Ohio. Today John McCain refuted those reports claiming he has not chosen his candidate yet.
Initial reports that came out yesterday said that John McCain had chosen his vice presidential running mate and his choice was only known to a small circle of advisers which included three or four people, all of which refused to discuss the matter publicly.
Lieberman, former Democrat turned Independent has been high on the list of those speculated about, because of the long friendship between the two men and the mutual respect and affection the two Senators who have worked together for years have for one another, but according to the New York Times, some Republicans feel that pushing Lieberman to the forefront is a disinformation campaign geared toward keeping the choice under wraps until he decides to make his announcement.
There are even reports, via The Politico, that Republican strategist Karl Rove, President Bush's former top campaign adviser, had tried to kill Lieberman as McCain's vice presidential pick by calling Lieberman and asking him to withdraw his name from the possibilities. A request that was reported to have been denied.
Yesterday and today, The Politico and CNN had also reported that McCain had chosen his running mate but would not announce his decision until at least Friday.
The difficulties of keeping the name of the person chosen were highlighted last week when Barack Obama made his choice which ended up being Joe Biden, and after multiple false reports, the dispatching of a Secret Service detail sent to protect Biden the night before the text messages and emails were sent to supporters, ended up assuring that the media was able to report and confirm Obama's choice before his supporters who had signed up to be "the first to know".
Disputing those reports of the Veep running mate being chosen already, MSNBC reports that McCain told KDKA NewsRadio early this morning "I haven't decided yet so I can't tell you."
Then, perhaps to throw reporters off the trail, he spoke in glowing terms of Governor Tom Ridge who was previously said to be ruled out after the Republican National Committee had told Fox News that McCain had "got the message" after floating the names of pro-choice candidates.
Several sources at the RNC told FOX News that in the last 36 hours, senior McCain advisers and aides have told RNC officials that McCain "got the message" last week that choosing a running mate who supports abortion rights would not be helpful.
McCain is due to announce his Veep running mate choice Friday which is his 72nd birthday. The announcement will be made at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio, at 11 a.m. ET.
The Political Ticker OH has issued a challenge to their readers, listing the names of printing plants in the area under the assumption the McCain campaign will need signs with the name of his vice presidential pick on them, and challenges readers to "find John McCain's running mate".
Besides being McCain's birthday, Friday is also the day after the Democratic Convention ends, with Obama's acceptance speech due to be given tonight at the Invesco Field, and the McCain campaign hopes to limit the potential "bounce" for Obama which traditionally follows a candidate's being officially nominated as the candidate to run as president against the opposing party's candidate.
In previous years there was generally two weeks between the Democratic and Republican Conventions, time enough for for reports to center on one campaign, the convention, the crowning of a candidate officially and their acceptance speech which usually causes a rise in polling numbers.
This year there are only three days between the end of the Democratic Convention and the beginning of the Republican Convention and with polling, from organizations such as Gallup and others, showing none of the expected bounce for Obama since the start of the Democratic Convention, the McCain campaign is hoping to keep it that way by choosing the day following Obama's acceptance speech to announce his own Veep, thereby keeping the news cycle focused on his campaign for the weekend and then again with the wall-to-wall media coverage the conventions give them the week of the event.
Did the McCain campaign learn from how the news of Obama's vice presidential running mate leaked and how do they plan to avoid the same type of preemptive reporting and confirming of the person chosen?
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 09:28 PM CDT
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 09:25 PM CDT
From my inbox. I have seen this a few times. I have no idea who this writer is, but think his thoughts well worth a read:
"The Axis of Idiots"H/T to Jane
*cross-posted in all the usual places*
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 08:38 PM CDT
YouTube video added.
The ABC investigative unit was investigating corporate lobbyists and wealthy donors at the convention. The video shown on ABC news , shows Eslocker being ordered off the sidewalk that the officer claimed was privately owned by the hotel, where he and the camera crew were attempting to take pictures of Democratic Senators and VIP donors as they were leaving the hotel.
ABC is reporting that an ABC News producer, Asa Eslocker, who works with the investigative unit of ABC was arrested today while attempting to photograph Democratic Senators and VIP donors as they were leaving a private meeting at the Brown Palace Hotel.
The Boulder County sheriff's officer was caught on film pushing Eslocker off the sidewalk into oncoming traffic, continuing until he had pushed him all the way to other side of the street.
Two hours later the Denver police arrived and arrested Eslocker alleging there was a complaint filed by the Brown Palace Hotel.
A cigar-smoking Denver police sergeant, accompanied by a team of five other officers, first put his hands on Eslocker's neck, then twisted the producers arm behind him to put on handcuffs.
The charges against Eslocker are trespassing, interference, and failure to follow a lawful order, and he was later released on a $500 bond.
The investigative unit was taking pictures for a Money Trail series that is being reported on by ABC World News with Charles Gibson, which is running every night this week and next from both nominating conventions..
[Update] Denver Post reports a statement made by Brian Ross from ABC News, saying, "We're getting under their skin, I think."
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 07:59 PM CDT
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 05:56 PM CDT
The majority of delegates at the roll call on the Democratic Convention floor have all cast their votes for Barack Obama, making his status as the Democratic nominee for president, completely official.
The Democratic Convention just held their open floor roll call vote and Barack Obama is now the official Democratic candidate for president of the United states of America.
The took a state-by-state vote and as was rumored earlier in the week, when they reached New York, Hillary Clinton asked for rules to be suspended and asked for Barack Obama to be ruled the official nominee by acclamation, thereby suspending the rest of state-by-state roll call vote.
Immediately after, Clinton's supporters started chanting "Hillary Hillary Hillary."
Pelosi asked for a second to the motion, she received it, then took the voice acclimation call and declared Obama the Democratic Nominee.
I watched this on television and will link to the news accounts of the roll call as soon as they are online.
It was announced this morning and verified by AFP that Hillary Clinton released her delegates this morning but did not tell them how to vote, although she did make it clear she was voting for Barack Obama.
"I am here today to release you," Clinton said, drawing cries of "No" in a meeting of her delegates in downtown Denver, a day after she ordered her millions of primary voters to unite behind the party White House hopeful.
[Update] Links are starting to come out as the AFP announces the result of the suspended roll call vote.
[Update #2] The LA Times Top of the Ticket makes the point that Barack Obama just made history by becoming the "first biracial American nominated for president of the United States by one of the nation's major parties."
[Update #3] Rocky Mountain News reports Hillary Clinton's exact words as she suggested suspending the rules to vote for Obama by acclamation, "On behalf of the great state of New York, with appreciation for the spirit and dedication of all who are gathered here, with eyes firmly fixed on the future, in the spirit of unity, with the goal of victory, with faith in our party and our country, let's declare together in one voice, right here right now, that Barack Obama is our candidate. I move that the convention suspend the procedural rules and suspend the further conduct of the the roll call … and I move Sen. Barack Obama be elected by this convention by acclamation as the nominee of the Democratic party."
Followed by: "All in favor of the motion to suspend the rules and nominate Barack Obama, please say 'I.'
More on the meeting where Clinton released her delegates from MyDD.
[Update #4] The delegate count stood at 1549.5 for Obama to 341.5 to Clinton, when Clinton made the motion to suspend the state-by-state roll call.
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 04:15 PM CDT
The criticisms coming from Democratic supporters range from attacks against Republicans not being strong enough or happening often enough, not being effective enough and not being on the same page and working in conjunction with each other, to critiquing the "McCain is the same as Bush" statements, which has been a theme throughout the general election campaign, that has not helped the polling numbers.
Democratic pundits across the web are questioning the strategy and themes of the Democratic Convention and wondering why there are not more attacks against Republicans. The answer is that the Obama campaign is rewriting the speeches to fit his theme.
The prevailing thought seems to be that direct attacks against McCain would be more effective, might help give Obama the "bounce" in the polls that are traditional during either party's convention week, but which have not been seen in recent polling as of yet heading into the third night of the Democratic National Convention.
The feeling of frustration is evidenced by pundits such as Chris Bower at Open Left, who expresses frustration and wonders if Obama will see any bounce this year.
I am feeling really frustrated today. I am sensing that something is wrong with this convention, and that there will be no bounce. I don't know exactly what we need to do to get a bounce, but I do know that we haven't done it yet.
From 1960 to 2004, the history of convention bounces, shown at Center For Politics org. , shows that for Democrats the range varies from a minus 1, seen in 1964, to plus 28, seen in 1992, with only two conventions, 1972 and 2004, seeing no bounce at all.
In the same timeframe, the bounce for Republicans during their convention has ranged from plus 2, in 2004 to plus 12 in 1960.
The constant question coming from Democratic supporters of why is there no bounce yet, and why are the Democrats not attacking Republicans more, as the conservatives will undoubtedly attack the Democrats during the Republican convention next week, has been answered and again, it is not making those supporters very happy.
The Hill reports that it is Barack Obama and his campaign that is controlling the entire theme of the speeches made, to the point of rewriting the entire product completely in some cases.
As the Democratic presumptive nominee, that is Obama's right, to decide what the general overall theme is and to keep the speakers from straying from that theme.
Speakers slated to to give speeches must have their speeches approved by the Obama campaign and in many cases they receive the speeches back "drastically" changed to better fit the theme that Obama wants addressed at the convention, which is "rags-to-riches".
According to some Democratic sources, certain speeches have been completely scrapped and rewritten in their entirety.
Obama has long expressed his desire to run a positive campaign, but that approach has attracted criticism from some Democrats, who say the Illinois senator must hit Republicans harder.
The article points out that not all the speeches have been massively changed and Obama is allowing certain individuals to attack Republicans and the Bush administration and Bill Clinton's speech will not be changed at all, but Democratic strategist James Carville believes the Obama campaign is pulling it's punches and is being too soft on John McCain specifically.
Carville also guarantees, in his statement on CNN, that the Republicans will not be pulling punches against Obama at their convention and will go directly after Barack Obama.
Obama spokesman, Bill Burton, states, "This year, we're focused on making sure that the American people see how we're showcasing Democrats, independents and, yes, even some Republicans. People who watch will get a crystal-clear sense of who Barack Obama is and the fundamental choice between Barack Obama, who wants to fundamentally change business as usual in Washington, and … John McCain, who offers just more of the same."
The LA Times points out that on Monday, which was day one of the convention, Bush's name was mentioned a "mere 14 times" over seven hours with Tuesday showing an improvement from Monday with Rahm Emanuel's speech mentioning Bush 13 times alone.
With the most recent polls showing a "razor thin" race, as the Briefing Room titles their piece, let a conservative observer, me, give Obama and the Democrats some advice.
The theme of "McCain is the same as Bush" has not brought you any distinct advantage in the last year of hammering it at every opportunity. McCain's voting record and history as well as public statements criticizing Bush policies are all things the public is aware of and know him for.
He is known as a Maverick for a reason, which is why it took a long time and hard work for some conservatives to start uniting behind McCain.
If Obama continues to only allow a handful of the dozens of speakers to directly attack John McCain instead of having a few speakers get off a few shots about Bush, and start hammering criticisms against McCain directly,while they have the national stage and wall-to-wall coverage, then Barack Obama will not see the so far elusive bounce everyone keeps waiting for, but the Republicans will when they take the national stage next week and use it to rip Obama apart.
Obama said back in June, of the McCain campaign, as Wall Street Journal reports, "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."
Well, conventions are gang fights, the Republicans have the guns out, ammunition loaded, vests on and they are prepared to fire and Obama has taken the Democrat's guns away from them and handed them knives to fight back with.
In a rare moment of agreement with Bowers from Open Left, I am sensing the same thing as he is... "something is wrong with this convention."
Obama is yet again showing his inexperience and his lack of judgment and liberals are starting to understand he simply doesn't know what he is doing. He became popular fast because he spoke well, but speaking well and being able to deliver are two distinctly different things, as Bill Clinton so kindly reminded people yesterday.
Not only do Republicans have a good chance at winning the election in November, it is starting to look like the Democrats and Obama are willing to help them do so.
Fine by me!
[Update] Don't take it from me, take it from a liberal pundit, Erza Klein, who is at the convention and witnessing what is happening firsthand.
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 04:13 PM CDT
Cross-posted by Maggie at Maggie's Notebook
Media, including Fox News and the AP, reviewed the Annenberg Challenge files released yesterday after reporter Stanley Kurtz suggested a more-than-neighborly connection between Barack Obama and terrorist William Ayers.
An editorial piece at the National Review Online (NRO) brings us up-to-date on the early stages of digging through alleged Obama-Ayers related documents released yesterday to NRO's Stanley Kurtz.
Some highlights from NRO:
1) Obama and Ayers "doled out tens of thousands of dollars to charities, among them, Jeremiah Wright's Trinity United Church of Christ - Obama's church, and the Arab American Action Network:
(co-founded by Rashid Khalidi, a Yasser Arafat apologist who has supported attacks against Israel and now directs Columbia University's notorious Middle East Institute, founded by Edward Said).2) Ayers secured a $49.2 million grant for the Annenberg Foundation
...matched two-to-one by public and private contributions — to promote "reform" in the Chicago school system. He quickly brought in Obama, then all of 33 and bereft of any executive experience, to chair the board. With Ayers directing the project's operational arm and Obama overseeing its financial affairs until 1999, the Chicago Annenberg Challenge distributed more than $100 million to ideological allies with no discernible improvement in public education...3) Michelle Obama:
...then a dean at the University of Illinois, invited Ayers to participate in a panel with her husband, then a state senatorFrom the Chicago Chronicle 1997:
Ayers will be joined by Sen. Barack Obama, Senior Lecturer in the Law School, who is working to combat legislation that would put more juvenile offenders into the adult system;...Reporting is mixed on the contents of the documents.
Why the Obama-Ayers Connection Matters
Obama '08 Urges DOJ to Quash McCain Ad - McCain Comes Back Strong
Posted: 27 Aug 2008 04:04 PM CDT
"Surely we have not come to a point where the government and its agencies are used to protect presidential candidates from citizens' speech, ...destroying the purpose meaning and historical essence of the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution."
American Issues Project (AIP) is responding to Obama '08's request for investigation of AIP by the Criminal Division of the Department of Justice (DOJ).AIP produced and aired a video ad to which Obama '08 is objecting. The ad may be viewed here.
Obama '08 responded with an ad, the letter to the DOJ and letters to television station managers asking that the AIP video not be aired - along with this suggestion that they:
"arrange a time ....to address...accept[ing] AIP as a paying customer for your advertising time.From Politico.com:
The Obama campaign plans to punish the stations that air the ad financially, an Obama aide said, organizing his supporters to target the stations that air it and their advertisers.Obama's attorneys, through a letter to the DOJ, claim the following:
* AIP's actions are "knowing and and willful violation.
* AIP is "expressly advocating the defeat of Barack Obama for the position of President of the United States."
* AIP is illegally claiming tax-exempt status under IRS Section 501(c)(4).
* AIP solicits contributions as a political committee.
The same letter accused AIP of using a "magic word" in an AIP video ad for McCain. The magic word was "elect."
Obama attorney, Robert Bauer, reminded the DOJ's John Keeney of a previous "assurance" made to Fred Wertheimer, President of Democracy21:
"You assured Mr. Wertheimer that you "intend to vigorously pursue instances where individuals or organizations knowingly and intentionally violate the clear commands of this important statute."AIP responded with their own letter to the DOJ. Here are snippets, presented out-of-order, but not out-of-text:
Let me be very clear: AIP is not in violation of any federal statute, regulation or other applicable law...Background:
Obama '08 Urges DOJ to Quash McCain Ads - McCain Comes Back Strong
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